Nigeria’s oil earnings have recorded an estimated windfall of about N5.13tn in two months, as crude prices surged sharply following tensions linked to the United States–Iran crisis, pushing revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget assumptions.

The US-Iran war started on February 28 when oil prices were below $70 a barrel.

Since the war started, oil prices have continued to soar, selling for above $120 at some point.

As of Friday, 1st May, 2026, Brent traded at $110 per barrel, and Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude, traded at $134 as of Thursday.

The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

Based on these, expected daily oil revenue stands at $116.73m, derived from multiplying 1.8 million barrels by $64.85. When converted at the budget exchange rate, this amounts to about N163.42bn per day, which serves as the baseline for measuring any revenue gains or shortfalls.

Findings, however, show that actual earnings in March and April exceeded this benchmark, largely due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices as the crisis in the Middle East rages on.

In March, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicated that Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, while the average crude price stood at $95.03 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the exchange rate averaged N1,370 to the dollar.